The Punters Guide returns after a little break. We have a few competitive races at Dubbo today – lets pick the diamonds from the quartz. Our last guide can be found HERE
Race 1 – KENNARDS MINE SITE CG&E MAIDEN 1120m
Track conditions out west are not great, with a churned heavy 10. The opening race does feature some runners who are tried and tested on a heavy track, and the one that has shown the most promise is Matchfox. The classy Foxwedge runner has been there abouts at this range and has placed all three attempts on a heavy surface. Can make that step today. You can never look past a Your Song gelding on debut, in The Nutter, from what has been seen, this horse has a very powerful gait and shouldn’t be too encumbered by the track conditions today. Jake Pracey-Holmes has the value runner of the day here on What Diddy Say. Third and a fourth last two respectively, main question mark here is can he handle to the heavy.
Top Pick – Matchfox
Next Best – The Nutter
Longshot – What Diddy Say
Race 2 – KENNARDS HIRE DUBBO F&M MAIDEN 1120m
In Good Health maps as the one to beat here and, the market reflects this. Last race was super impressive when flashing home for a second. Has a tougher assignment here today, especially to replicate that run on today’s churned surface. Will need to find that next gear to get it done here. Arnault is another to watch here today. Running in good form and will look to get to the front on a track that will have a front running bias. Expected to go well here. Have to include Maniototo in this one, the runner out of Street Cry should be able to make the step up in these conditions, drawn well and will look to sit off the lead horses. If the favourite gets into trouble, Maniototo could easily capitalise.
Top Pick – In Good Health
Next Best – Arnault
Longshot – Maniototo
Race 3 – KENNARDS MINE LIGHTING MAIDEN 1420m
Stomp should have won its last race, but, ultimately fell short, has an easier group here today, biggest question mark for the mare here is the track conditions, untested on heavy. If she can find her best here, she will be hard to beat. Another untested on heavy here, is Gaze Beyond, interesting type that can hit the line hard as seen in last run, when coming from near last to finish a close second. One to include. Elusive Valley is the value runner in this race here, can mix form at times, but, in what can be an open affair here with a lot of midfield and back markers having a tough run due to track conditions, if Elusive Valley can produce the fastest of the back bunch, could get the win here.
Top Pick – Stomp
Next Best – Gaze Beyond
Longshot – Elusive Valley
Race 4 – KENNARDS NEW ZEALAND BENCHMARK 66 1620m
Not For Export has been tested seven times on heavy and struck a place on five occasions. Last start can be forgiven when boxed out and faded on the straight. Not For Export will look to drop back early and then come on late, has the ability here. Assurity drops significantly in class today, gets the hot provincial jockey, Greg Ryan in the saddle, winner on heavy tracks previously and maps well for this one, could be the one to beat here. Another long value runner here for Jake Pracey-Holmes in Amare, who is coming in wtih the strongest form lines, but, is yet to test a heavy track. Unknown quantity here today, that, at its best, could upset here.
Top Pick – Not For Export
Next Best – Assurity
Longshot – Amare
Race 5 – XXXX GOLD CUP SPRINT PRELUDE 1120m
Joey’s Destiny and Greg Ryan are going to be the benchmark in this race. Will look to push forward early on and dictate the pace of the race, if Ryan can get to the front in this one, will prove hard to track down on Joey’s Destiny. One to beat here. Kenny Succeed is one that can never not be counted. Has exceptional late speed, and will be challenging for the lead, the type of horse that can go gate to post. This one isn’t much of a longshot, or value runner, but, must be included, Molasses is coming in on the back of a poorly run fourth after an impressive win with Cavallo in the saddle. Can run midfield and use good turn of foot to win this. Must be included.
Top Pick – Joey’s Destiny
Next Best – Kenny Succeed
Must be included – Molasses
Race 6 – NZ RACING & RUGBY BENCHMARK 58 1120m
Billy Bent Ear was an impressive winner last start, and, there is nothing to suggest it can not back that performance up here, retaining winning jockey here and at suitable distance as well as track conditions. Will take some beating here. The Arnold Schwarzenegger favourite here, Get To The Chopper is the next best, dropping in class significantly here today, and has the form to pull this one off. Expect a bold run. Little Bertie must be included. Retains winning jockey from last effort, and, going into only it’s third race in a beatable benchmark 58, if it can win here today – it is a must in the blackbook.
Top Pick – Billy Bent Ear
Next Best – Get To The Chopper
Must be included – Little Bertie
Race 7 – NZ RACING & RUGBY BENCHMARK 58 1120m
Hoges is the one you want to be on here and is great value currently at time of writing. Trialed nicely behind Tim’s Principal over 900m in preparation for this race, and, last competitive race can be dismissed when copping interference being blocked for a run and fading out. Time before that super impressive win against a more competitive field than today’s. Top chance. Tibidabo is the next best here and going to be one of the main challengers to Hoges, may have even gotten the nod if not for poor history when running from wide barriers. Dropping in class and will have an edge, but, will need to find its best to win here. Eyesaw is another that must be included here. Good first up record, will look to run on the pace, and, will have every chance on this track.
Top Pick – Hoges
Next Best – Tibdabo
Longshot – Eyesaw
Race 8 – DUBBO TOYOTA DUBBO CUP PRELUDE 1420m
Wild Cavalier is the picture of consistency at the moment, doing everything right, except for winning. Has every chance here today to convert that good form against a softer field than last. Will look to get near the lead and run on the pace. Can go on with it today. Bank On Henry is the next best here, coming in on the back of a sound performance with jockey, running in second on heavy track, and, finds a less competitive field than last. Can go one better. Moonlight Spy is the one that is a real dark horse in this race. Lightly exposed to the track, running here once for a place, last start second at long odds was an impressive showing, and, anything close to that here could be enough to win.
Top Pick – Wild Cavalier
Next Best – Bank On Henry
Longshot – Moonlight Spy
Race 9 – DUBBO CHRISTMAS TWILIGHTS CLASS 2 1420m
Outta Space is dropping in class today and must be respected. Beaten a better field than is on offer here today – especially after all the top level talent being scratched this morning. Sergy Linsyy is always a difficult customer when it comes to closing out race meets, and this won’t be any different on this talented gelding. Main threat here is in Sure Shot Sheza. Drawn well and will look to run just off the pace setters here. Has a good turn of foot and will be right there throughout. Longshot value here goes to Tokyo Bullet, who has drawn well and will be able to run just off the pace in what maps as a slower race than expected now with the speedsters being scratched, which suits Tokyo Bullet.
Top Pick – Outta Space
Next Best – Sure Shot Sheza
Longshot – Tokyo Bullet
Bet Chimps Racing Double – Stomp to place in to Hoges to win @ $7.81/+681 on BetEasy
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***all listed odds are subject to change, as races are commenced after the writing of this article.
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