It has been a bit of a spell between Punters Guide publishings, but, we are back today, and ready to go for the big card at Flemington. Looking for plays – we have you covered here. Our last guide can be found HERE
Race 1 – Xxxx Gold 3yo Maiden Plate 1000m
Interesting race of runners here, Brazen Belle stands out here, despite the lack of racing experience. Debutante with good bloodlines that has been said to have a good set of gears over the short trip. Dunn rarely produces ineffective short priced youngsters. Taking on market confidence here.
Top Pick – Brazen Belle
No Next Best – No third dividend
Race 2 – Tursa Maiden Handicap 1000m
Magic Scent went extremely close to breaking maiden last start, instead, came in as the bridesmaid, but, finds a much easier race here then last. The shorter trip here helps, will push to the lead quickly and the short straight at Ballina will be a secret weapon here. Commandeering can’t be discredited here either, who should be fighting Magic Scent for the lead early on. Both have good early transitional speed to overcome wide gates. Commandeering looms as a threat. Uptooit is another that has good top end speed, and has drawn much more favourably and should challenge for the front spot. True chance and can win here.
Top Pick – Magic Scent
Next Best – Commandeering
Longshot – Uptooit
Race 3 – Ballina Fair Bm 58 Handicap 100m
Luke Rolls has the top weighter, Silent Statue here, and, will be carrying 62kgs, which is a concern, but, this horse is dropping significantly in class and, has drawn well enough to get behind the lead pack. Shown good turn of foot previously and, with a bit of luck, can break through and prove hard to catch. Invincible Tammy loves an uptempo race and will get that here. Expected to roll forward and compete for the early lead, and, with the short straight could be the value point. Leah Kilner is also having a great second half of 2018, and has the ride. Rocky Nugget rounds out the chances here, drawn a mid gate, and, will be another putting the pace into this one. Expected to be in the mix late.
Top Pick – Silent Statue
Next Best – Invincible Tammy
Longshot – Rocky Nugget
Race 4 – Thank You Reg Laurie Maiden Plate 1300m
Angel Of War has drawn wide here, but, has been racing consistently enough around this distance to be competitive here. Last start finished a close second (0.1L) and anything close to last effort will be enough here. Deep Blue Sea is another racing in form, and, an Ocean Park maiden is always competitive. Galloway returns to the saddle here after a strong effort last start, just not having enough in the tank to beat Spicers Peak. Sound prospects here. Givemeaminute could be the value point here and is at a current quote at double digits. Third two starts back reads well for this race, as it was against a better field of runners, and, at its best, can upset here.
Top Pick – Angel Of War
Next Best – Deep Blue Sea
Longshot – Givemeaminute
Race 5 – Tab.com.au Bm 66 Handicap 2650m
Skye Bogenhuber has been the quiet achiever at the moment, and has another top chance here in Stella’s Chance. Winner at only try at this distance and is coming in off a good win a furlong shorter than today. Maps well here and will be hard to beat. Blazing Cheers was a good winner last start over a furlong and a half shorter. Looked like a bit more leg room would suit, and is offered the chance to prove it today. Has the ability and will be close throughout. Shandaara is the best of the rest here. Got in the minors at only effort over this distance and, anything similar to that effort could prove value here. True chance.
Top Pick – Stella’s Choice
Next Best – Blazing Cheers
Longshot – Shandaara
Race 6 – The Mission @ Aquis Farm Class 1 1000m
Champagne Garden has had two first-up efforts and got in the minors both times, will be looking for one better here today against a very beatable field. Race fitness may be a question mark with a 149-day spell, but, quality enough runner to get the job done here. Inwithachance is as the name suggests. Winner last start at same grade, has an extra half furlong to deal with today, but, has the late speed to steal it late. Danger horse. Jameslea World is at a decent enough quote to warrant respect. Won at this distance and is doing well this prep, last two runs can be forgiven when getting stuck in transition and not finding openings.
Top Pick – Champagne Garden
Next Best – Inwithachance
Longshot – Jameslea World
Race 7 – Wardell On The River Hotel Class 3 1400m
Ryan Plumb has the chance to close out what could be a good day out here on Fanx. Fanx is a winner at this distance, Plumb has won twice in the saddle and finds a race that lacks any real chasing speed. Will shoot to the lead and prove hard to track down. Cyclone Path is a threat here. A stalker type that likes to sit just off the speed, if Fanx doesn’t put too much speed into this one, Cyclone Path could capitalise. Flinders Dragon rounds out the day here, Tegan harrison has a good chance to get the upset in the last and has a good strike rate with horses over $10 quotes but under $15 in the last two races at tracks in Northern NSW. Expected to go well here and a win wouldn’t shock.
Top Pick – Fanx
Next Best – Cyclone Path
Longshot – Flinders Dragon
Bet Chimps Racing Double – Magic Scent to win in to Champagne Garden to win @ $8.52/+752 on BetEasy
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***all listed odds are subject to change, as races are commenced after the writing of this article.
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