Bet Chimps are bringing you the Wimbledon 2018 – Best Bets for round one. With the defending champion Roger Federer back at full strength, and not a great deal of talent on the line-up to unseat the immortal champion, it looks like it is a matter of who can beat Federer as opposed to who will win. With that said – we have targeted a few games below for the first round of Wimbldeon.
Marin Cilic v Yoshihito Nishioka
This match should be Marins for the taking. While the over/under market is set at 28.5, there is value in this, as Cilic is the far superior grass court player and holds an edge in both categories that we look for, to match up these types of markets. With current market value of 1.03 to win, Cilic represents his true value to win here with a 97% probability.
Best Bet – Match Total UNDER 28.5 games @ $1.90/-112 on Betfair
Ivo Karlovic v Mikhail Youhzny
The odds of this match, are purely matched at the incredibly poor run of form that Karlovic has shown this year, his world ranking has blown out 70 spots and he now sits at #112, while Youhzny is just over 100. This is a winnable game for Karlovic, but, he has just shown that he is unreliable to do so this current season. However, both love to play power tennis, and, both should be able to win a set in this contest. This makes the overs a very attractive play. However, the line for this is set right about where this game could potentially close out in four sets. Due to the unreliability of Karlovic and the consistency of Youhzny, Youhzny holds the edge to win this matchup.
Best Bet – Mikhail Youhzny ML @ $1.80/-125 on Crownbet
Yuki Bhambri v Thomas Fabbiano
Interesting matchup here between two very evenly match opponents. Fabbiano, on grass, has the edge over Bhambri, who is better on harder and dustier courts. Fabbiano is coming in on the back of a three game winning streak, where Bhambri has lost four of his last five contests on grass. Prior performance is usually a strong indicator of future performance, and Bhambri has routinely struggled with the spin and bounce of grass courts, where Fabbiano has look more balanced. Fabbiano has the edge in both first serve to point conversion as well as points from second serve on grass, and his odds are a true reflection of market value. However, Fabbiano is prone to giving away cheap sets, and, that will be no different here, as Bhambri is more than capable of capitalising on mistakes that Fabbiano will make.
Best Bet – Match Total OVER 38.5 games @ $1.83/-120 on Crownbet
John Millman v Stefano Travaglia
Another great match up here of two very evenly matched opponents. Millman is coming in on the back of a three set loss to Marco Cecchianto where as, Travaglia is coming in on the back of three straight Wimbledon qualifier matches without dropping a set. Both play very good tennis from the baseline, and, Travaglia has a little more speed at foot and applies a little more spin to his shots than his Australian opponent. However, Millman has a significant edge in power behind the ball, and speed on the serve. This matchup, should see both entrants win a set, which helps with the overs market which is a little soft at 38.5.
Best Bet – Match Total OVER 38.5 games @ $1.80/-125 on NEDS
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