It has been a bit of a spell between Punters Guide publishings, but, we are back today, and ready to go for the big card at Caulfield. Looking for plays – we have you covered here. Our last guide can be found HERE
Race 1 – Bet365 Sv 3yo Maiden Plate 1462m
Just missed out on claiming debut win on softer ground last start, finds a smaller field and one that maps a little easier here. Meech is in great form right now as well, and, has the best horse in the race, which also happens to be my best of the day at Kilmore. Do You Reckon will push out of the gate fast, and, I expect Quality Approach to sit on his heels. Late speed advantage sits with Meech here, one to beat.
Top Pick – Quality Approach
No Next Best – No Third Dividend
Race 2 – North Central Review 3yo Fillies 1212m
Gossip showed great improvement last start under Jye McNeil, and will be in a race where it figures to be one of the top chances. Last race, finished strongly and will appreciate the extra distance here. Main danger comes in the favourite Polished Diamond, but, if Gossip can sit in cover early, will be hard to keep at bay here. Polished Diamond can’t be denied here, one of the top three in this race and, will have every chance to get that maiden win here after coming very close last start. Most likely to set the pace of the race, and, if Walker can build a good enough lead, may be able to hold off late challengers. She’s Our Reward could be the value runner here. Has enough race fitness headed into this one, drawn the rail and will enjoy the conditions. Win wouldn’t shock.
Top Pick – Gossip
Next Best – Polished Diamond
Longshot – She’s Our Reward
Race 3 – The Bendigo Club Maiden Plate 1612m
Castle Rock has come ever so close last two starts to breaking the maiden and, finds possibly the most beatable field it has come across so far in its young career. Will drop off the pace early and try to get in cover from the mid barrier draw. Enjoys a mid tempo race, which is what we have today without and true speedsters. Expected to win. Of the others, Perfect Pony and Miss Caboose have upset potential, but, this is Castle Rocks race to lose.
Top Pick – Castle Rock
Next Best – Perfect Pony
Longshot – Miss Caboose
Race 4 – Bet365 Kilmore Cup 25 November 1462m
In what maps a possible good start for favourite backers – Simply Dreaming ridden by Michael Walker rates on top here. Drawn well, the daughter of Denman will dropping off the pace early and looking to close later on. Has shown excellent late pace previously, only question mark is how well it can handle softer footing. Vibrato has had a good prep so far, grabbing multiple minors – but no win unfortunately. That could change here today if the favourite gets caught in some trouble racing from the back. Shown good turn of foot later on and will be right in this. Inala Max has history on softer going, and, Dean Holland is riding well at the moment. Drawn well and will be competitive here, slightly over the odds.
Top Pick – Simply Dreaming
Next Best – Vibrato
Longshot – Inala Max
Race 5 – Cub Bm58 Handicap 1462m
Macstryker may not be running in the greatest form, but, at its best, has shown excellent turn of foot, has a strong gait to make up for the softer going in this one, and the late sectionals to suggest it can win, if at its best. Drawn well and will look to get cover early on and finish strong. Top chance. Amschel has drawn the rail, has the best form and is dropping in class targeting the win here. Distance suits and will be on pace throughout. If stamina is there, will win. Diamond Beauty could be the value point here. Recent form impressive, soft ground and distance are questions marks here. Has the speed to suggest a competitive run – but, others favoured.
Top Pick – Macstryker
Next Best – Amschel
Longshot/Value – Diamond Beauty
Race 6 – Jet Roofing Bm58 Handicap 1112m
Missandei has been racing well this prep. Has hit four minors on nine tries at this range, and, will be looking to move across early on from the squeeze gate. Mid race is where Missandei will suggest a win or not – if she is running faster through the mid sections and can lead or be near it – she will be hard to beat. No Reward can’t be denied here, winner two starts back and winner at this distance and class. If No Reward does not over work early as it tends to, will be the main danger here. Royal Pegasus is the value point here, dropping in class significantly, with race fitness under its belt, and drawn well. Win wouldn’t shock.
Top Pick – Missandei
Next Best – No Reward
Longshot – Royal Pegasus
Race 7 – Beraldo Coffee Bm58 Handicap 2112m
Hezaforce has a great chance here to repeat the success of the run two starts back. SHowed great speed when coming from mid bpack to burst through for the win. Last start can be forgiven when running in to trouble mid race and losing ground that couldn’t be made up. Expected to go better here and will be one of the chances. Skyfire may have a few more boxes ticked than the top pick, including a solid last start win. Unbeaten at track and distance and winner at distance last start carrying a monstrous 70.0kgs. Expected to go well again today. She’s A Diplomat has won and placed at this range on two attempts, shown the stamina and gait needed for today’s conditions. Running lighter and will be competitive.
Top Pick – Hezaforce
Next Best – Skyfire
Longshot/Value – She’s A Diplomat
Race 8 – Hanson Cleaning Bm58 Handicap 1612m
The Wild Cat showed great form last start when winning over a shorter trip – but, that win suggested a step up wouldn’t be too much of an issue. Eaton in the saddle helps at the weights, and will be one of the top chances here. Weidman at longer odds is an impressive type that enjoys this type of distance and track condition. Footing should be churned and boggy by the time this race rolls around and that only suits the last start winner who retains the jockey from that effort. True chance. Sticks can’t be discounted here, despite not being a longshot, or a value point – has run well of late and on recent form, can be in the mix here.
Top Pick – The Wild Cat
Next Best – Weidman
Longshot/Value – Sticks
Bet Chimps Racing Double – Extra Brut to win in to Khulasa to win @ $10.92/+992 on BetEasy
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***all listed odds are subject to change, as races are commenced after the writing of this article.
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