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Bet Chimps Punters Guide – 2018 Mackinnon Stakes


Newcastle jockey Robert Thorton - by Citrus Zest via Wikimedia (2018 Lexus Melbourne Cup Guide)

By Citrus Zest [Creative Commons], via Wikimedia Commons

It’s Mackinnon Stakes day, which brings a sad close to the Spring Carnival and we have the best from every race with the Bet Chimps Punters Guide and, we are ready to go for the big card at the 2018 Mackinnon Stakes. Looking for plays – we have you covered here. Our last guide can be found HERE

Race 1 – Melbourne’s Own 3aw Trophy 1600m

This one is going against popular thinking here – but, many think that Manuel won’t cut the mustard here today, but, with the ground firming up – the early favourite at time of writing, will be the one to beat. Has shown great late speed, and, the only other comparable over the final two furlongs is Call It A Day. However, McEvoy is having a spring for the ages, and it is highly unlikely to see this ride go amiss.

Top Pick – Manuel
No next best – No third dividend

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 2 – Juvenile Diabetes Research Plate 2000m

Interesting race here, but, the Japanese import looks too good at the weights here to not be favoured. Danon Roman missed the win against Lucky For All last start by 0.3L when carrying 2kgs more, today, is carrying 1kg less than Lucky For All, and will be ultra competitive again here. Gets a preferable track and the distance is right where ti should be. Look for bold run. Lucky For All can’t be discredited either, beaten the top pick previously, comes in a few kilo’s lighter than then, and has shown great speed in the important stages of races. Expected to be there again. Pleasuring has been knocking on the door all spring, including a third two back that was just a narrow margin off a win. Can hit the line hard and has drawn well to box seat as preferred. True chance.

Top Pick – Danon Roman
Next Best – Lucky For All
Longshot – Pleasuring

TOP PICK
mackinnon stakes

Race 3 – Watch Racing.com Springtime Stakes 1400m

Yulong January is a horse that we have followed here all spring, and, that isn’t going to change here. Narrowly missing out on quadruple wins, when just failing to clip Ranier, finds an easier field here today including an over-valued Ringerdingding. Yulong January is well weighted and has drawn perfectly for a good run here. Expected to win. Wagner may have drawn the car park here, but, at its best – can beat this field. We have seen what Wagner can produce early on in his career. Has not handled Victorian tracks all too well, and, prefers firmer ground – gets firmer ground today and can be competitive. Big jump in class here from the back-to-back winner, No Emotion, however, comes in well at the weights, won two of three tries at the distance and is expected to be in the mix again here today. Win wouldn’t shock.

Top Pick – Yulong January
Next Best – Wagner
Longshot – No Emotion

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 4 – Derucci Chatham Stakes 1400m

This is the most open race of the day – and there are two that standout in Widgee Turf and MR.Sneaky, but, arguments can be made for at least another four. Going to go with Widgee Turf on top here, was really gallant in defeat last start, comes into this one carrying less, and, has a rider change. Just needs to hold on a bit better the that late speed in this one and should be too hard to beat. Mr.Sneaky is just one of those horses that can run a big race – at its best, can beat this field by 1L+. Coming into this one on the back of some pretty disappointing results, will need a bit of improvement here but, capable. Torgesen is the best of the rest here. Interesting type that is coming in on the back of a stylish win last start. Anything close to last effort will be enough here. Definite chance.

Top Pick – Widgee Turf
Next Best – Mr.Sneaky
Longshot – Togersen

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 5 – Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2600m

Gallic Chieftain is great value here, and, loves this distance, drawn the rail and will get cover throughout. Has shown that it can still hit the line hard and should be included in all exotics here. Top chance. Jameeh has been running well this prep – but, this extra half furlong just seemed a little too much last start. Is against a softer field than last effort and will be there abouts once again. Libran has not featured for a while – but, ticks a few boxes here. Winner around this time last year, enjoys the distance and is coming in on the back of a third that maps well for this race.

Top Pick – Gallic Chieftain
Next Best – Jameeh
Longshot – Libran

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 6 – 7news Matriarch Stakes 2000m

Aqua D’Ivina is where you want to be this race – racing consistently, may have drawn a little wide, but, has the natural ability to overcome this. Unbeaten at this distance on one run, and, has shown the best turn of foot in this field. One to beat. Our Libretto jumps in class here today, but, nothing suggests that it won’t be able to handle the grade. Classy runner that can get going late, and has the benefit of not having to work hard early with a good draw. One of the chances. Eckstein is one that you can’t not include, has a habit of showing up when it is least expected, and, in this field it is one of those situations. While it may not have the same closing speed as some – it may get some luck, which is all Eckstein will need to capitalise.

Top Pick – Aqua D’Ivina
Next Best – Our Libretto
Longshot – Eckstein

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 7 – Vrc Sprint Classic 1200m

Redzel may not have the soggy track it excels on today – but, recent trial was impressive to say the least, blazing in without even trying. Drawn a little wide and will need to put in a bit of work to get the lead, but, McEvoy is on fire right now and just knows how to get the best out of Redzel. One to beat here. Next best is Santa Ana Lane, always in a good spot and just needed firmer ground last start, the ground gives that chance here today and should be able to show sharp improvement on last start. Pierata gets a chance here to unseat Redzel for speed. Both ran the same distance on the same day last out, and Pierata did it two seconds quicker, that isn’t saying that Pierata will blow this field away – it is suggesting that it will handle the step up in class and has the speed to match. Definite chance here.

Top Pick – Redzel
Next Best – Santa Ana Lane
Longshot – Pierata

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 8 – Seppelt Mackinnon Stakes 2000m

Blair House is extremely over-rated here and there is just too many bookie “experts” saying this horse will walk it in – when a bookie tells you a horse will win, that should be your first red flag, that isn’t suggesting it can’t win – it is suggesting that it won’t be a shock if it fails to fire because there is a large portion of the bets on this horse. One that really standsout here for the upset is Trap For Fools, who ran an honest second last start in much more talented company. Expected to run well again and a win wouldn’t shock. Shillelagh was impressive last start when beating a very strong field in the group one Empire Rose stakes. First try at the ten furlongs, but, has the ability to win. Extra Brut is the value point – winner at big odds last start over similar trip and against better runners, anything close to last effort and it can win this one comfortably.

Top Pick – Trap For Fools
Next Best – Shillelagh
Longshot – Extra Brut

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 9 – Grand Handicap 1100m

Eurack would have had even brighter prospects had the barrier draw been a little more beneficial, but, the unbeaten first-up runner is the quickest in the race, and does better fresh as an added kicker. Unbeaten over four career starts and looking for the quintuple here today, and it is achievable against this field. Eurack has the best sectionals over the last two furlongs and will prove hard to beat fresh. Order Of Command has drawn perfectly here and should be able to boxseat throughout. Only gone unplaced over the distance once over five starts and that was due to interference mid race. Can go well here. As It Lies could be the value point here. Yet to go unplaced second up – but, yet to win as well. Distance suits and drawn midfield. Has the early ability to roll forward and will prove hard to beat if can dictate the pace of the race.

Top Pick – Eurack
Next Best – Order Of Command
Longshot – As It Lies

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

QUADDIE for the day
Race 7 – 6,12,14
Race 8 – 1,3,6
Race 9 – 4,8,9
Race 10 – 9,11,13
$50 gets 62% on BetEasy

Best Bet – Yulong January Race 3 @ $3.80 on NEDS
Next Best – Redzel Race 7 @ $3.60 on NEDS
Longshot – Trap For Fools Race 8 @ $15.00 on NEDS

Bet Chimps Racing Double – Yulong January to win in to Redzel to win @ $13.32/+1232 on BetEasy

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***all listed odds are subject to change, as races are commenced after the writing of this article.

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Bet Chimps Punters Guide – Flemington


Newcastle jockey Robert Thorton - by Citrus Zest via Wikimedia (Moonee Valley Punters Guide)

By Citrus Zest [Creative Commons], via Wikimedia Commons

It has been a bit of a spell between Punters Guide publishings, but, we are back today, and ready to go for the big card at Flemington. Looking for plays – we have you covered here. Our last guide can be found HERE

Race 1 – The Carbine Club Stakes 1600m
Wild Planet is a clear danger in this one, and, with the rail being true today – it suits horses that are not going to be leading a little better. That wide turn down the Flemington straight will really open the field up for horses running behind the lead pack – this is where it comes down to closing speed, and Ranier has a slight edge over Wild Planet in this department, despite splitting races against one another – the one time that Wild Planet won – it was because Ranier got stuck for most of the straight and still only just missed out. Ranier will be too strong today. Of the others, value could be had in Secret Blaze, who will be running at the lead, and, if a gap is created has the ability to hold it.

Top Pick – Ranier
Next Best – Wild Planet
Longshot – Secret Blaze

TOP PICK
Flemington Punters Guide

Race 2 – Mumm Wakeful Stakes 2000m

Verry Elleegant is where all the money is today currently. So, with the amount of money backing this horse – it wouldn’t be a shock if it loses – however, it won’t. Another one of the Weir standouts this spring, keeps John Allen in the saddle who managed to just scrape the win out last start. Expecting to see another close finish here as there are a lot of even horses in the speed department here, but, Verry Elleegant heads the list. Next Best will be El Dorado Dreaming, who was a little disappointing last start, but, will be better for the fitness. Will go close. The value point in this race will be Tysonic, who has been very easy on the eye last two starts and makes first trip to the ten furlong marker. Previous efforts suggest it should handle it and current listed price is good value.

Top Pick – Verry Ellegant
Next Best – El Dorado Dreaming
Longshot – Tysonic

TOP PICK
Flemington Punters Guide
Race 3 – The Tab Stakes 1200m

Runson is the quickest horse in this race, with a ton of early speed, and enough speed through the middle stages, this horse is going to be extremely hard to beat if at its best. Osbourne Bulls is the next best here that has some serious closing speed that could be enough to catch Runson if able to get the lead. However, the awkward barrier for Osbourne Bulls will mean a very wide run to come home, the Flemington straight is long, which helps – but, Runson is in a world of his own at the moment. So Si Bon can fill in the exotics here, as a former top level runner dropping back to a beatable class.

Top Pick – Runson
Next Best – Osbourne Bulls
Longshot – So Si Bon

Top Pick
Flemington Punters Guide

Race 4 – Lexus Stakes 2500m

Craig Williams and Sixties Groove are a strong duo here. In impressive form, and last start win was a good enough indicator to suggest a competitive effort again here today. Against better horses here, but, a definite chance and value at listed quotes. Jameeh is another horse that is full of potential, which showed in last start win with Zahra as the jockey. Distance a non issue here, as longer the better it seems for Jameeh. Value point here goes to the Waller trained and McDonald ridden, Brimham Rocks. Impressive type that is always close. Win wouldn’t shock.

Top Pick – Sixties Groove
Next Best – Jameeh
Longshot/Value – Brimham Rocks

TOP PICK
Flemington Punters Guide

Race 5 – Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m

Zousain was gallant in defeat last start when just losing by a whisker to standout young gun, The Autumn Sun, this reads well for this race, as all the late speed will be with Zousain. Written By will likely say, catch me if you can – which is definitely something that Zousain is more than capable of doing. The value marker in the race should the top two fail, will be with the Lean Mean Machine, who will likely put in a flashy finish chasing the lead horses. This race will have a lot of late speed, and, if Written By hasn’t built a strong enough lead – he could be in trouble from a strong group of swoopers.

Top Pick – Zousain
Next Best – Written By
Longshot – Lean Mean Machine

TOP PICK
Flemington Punters Guide

Race 6 – Empire Rose Stakes 1600m

Invincibella has drawn poorly for this race, however, will enjoy the long straight as shown when winning at this track two starts back, with the winning jockey riding again today. Loves racing at Flemington and is yet to do worse than a top three finish. Has the best closing sectionals and should prove hard to beat here. Oohood was an impressive winner two starts back against some classy horses, an effort similar to that, and, it could prove value at current listed quote. Williams has opted for Oohood over Amphitrite in this one – and, surprisingly so. Despite others being favoured here, Amphitrite just can’t be denied, these absolute bullet runs from the back of the field to steal wins is becoming a bit of a trademark for this filly. Expect the same again here today.

Top Pick – Invincibella
Next Best – Oohood
Longshot/Value – Apmhitrite

TOP PICK
Flemington Punters Guide

Race 7 – Aami Victoria Derby 2500m

Thinking Big’s last win was super impressive, the question remains to be answered if that type of run can be sustained over this distance, as it wil need to be against a field of classy horses that enjoy late runs. One that looms as a real danger here is Stars Of Carrum, who sustained a long push to get the win by a small margin at the Valley last start. Stars Of Carrum looked to be able to push on further when winning that race which reads well here. Extra Brut can be forgiven for last run when just get caught in transit and never really being able to find a way through. Will have a wide barrier draw but, will look to sit behind the lead horses in a more favourable position. Has shown a good turn of foot previuosly and will be right in this one.

Top Pick – Thinking Big
Next Best – Stars Of Carrum
Longshot – Extra Brut

TOP PICK
Flemington Punters Guide

Race 8 – Kennedy Mile 1600m

Land Of Plenty ticks a lot of boxes here today. Flemington with a true rail is a dream for back markers, Land Of Plenty fits that bill and has shown exceptional turn of foot so far this spring. Expecting another big finish here from the Weir runner. Main danger here is Cliff’s Edge, who will, like always push for the lead and dare the rest to catch up. If Yendall can make a slip at the right time, Cliff’s Edge may have too big a lead to track down. Value point in this race sits with Hartnell, who, at his best, can beat this field with relative ease – the only question mark with Hartnell these days, is if he is interested in doing so. Showed he still can produce his best though.

Top Pick – Land Of Plenty
Next Best – Cliff’s Edge
Longshot – Hartnell

TOP PICK
Flemington Punters Guide
Race 9 – Furphy Sprint 1100m

From Within is look for five straight here today – finds decent competition from I Am Excited. From Within is proven at this range and has shown a great turn of foot this prep. I Am Excited too, has also shown good agility over the closing furlong, but, a slight edge goes to From Within. Massive value today is in Showpero, who was impressive when winning at Balaklava last start, and, despite a considerable jump in grade – should be competitive here at current listed price of $81.

Top Pick – From Within
Next Best – I Am Excited
Longshot – Showpero

TOP PICK
Flemington Punters Guide

Quaddie for the meet
Race 6 – 2/13/15
Race 7 – 1/3/4
Race 8 – 1/4/11
Race 9 – 4/7/10
$81 returns 100% with BetEasy

Best Bet – Land Of Plenty Race 8 @ $4.80 on BetEasy
Next Best – Zousain Race 5 @ $4.00 on BetEasy
Longshot – Invincibella Race 6 @ $10.00 on BetEasy

Bet Chimps Racing Double – Land Of Plenty to place in to Zousain to win @ $7.80/+680 on BetEasy

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Gambling is for 18+ only. If you think you have a gambling addiction, please, contact the gambling hotline on 1800 858 858

***all listed odds are subject to change, as races are commenced after the writing of this article.

Sign Up to Bet Chimps for our Sport and Racing all inclusive package!

Make sure to book mark Bet Chimps for more awesome and free Punters Guide posts.