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Bet Chimps Punters Guide – 2018 Mackinnon Stakes


Newcastle jockey Robert Thorton - by Citrus Zest via Wikimedia (2018 Lexus Melbourne Cup Guide)

By Citrus Zest [Creative Commons], via Wikimedia Commons

It’s Mackinnon Stakes day, which brings a sad close to the Spring Carnival and we have the best from every race with the Bet Chimps Punters Guide and, we are ready to go for the big card at the 2018 Mackinnon Stakes. Looking for plays – we have you covered here. Our last guide can be found HERE

Race 1 – Melbourne’s Own 3aw Trophy 1600m

This one is going against popular thinking here – but, many think that Manuel won’t cut the mustard here today, but, with the ground firming up – the early favourite at time of writing, will be the one to beat. Has shown great late speed, and, the only other comparable over the final two furlongs is Call It A Day. However, McEvoy is having a spring for the ages, and it is highly unlikely to see this ride go amiss.

Top Pick – Manuel
No next best – No third dividend

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 2 – Juvenile Diabetes Research Plate 2000m

Interesting race here, but, the Japanese import looks too good at the weights here to not be favoured. Danon Roman missed the win against Lucky For All last start by 0.3L when carrying 2kgs more, today, is carrying 1kg less than Lucky For All, and will be ultra competitive again here. Gets a preferable track and the distance is right where ti should be. Look for bold run. Lucky For All can’t be discredited either, beaten the top pick previously, comes in a few kilo’s lighter than then, and has shown great speed in the important stages of races. Expected to be there again. Pleasuring has been knocking on the door all spring, including a third two back that was just a narrow margin off a win. Can hit the line hard and has drawn well to box seat as preferred. True chance.

Top Pick – Danon Roman
Next Best – Lucky For All
Longshot – Pleasuring

TOP PICK
mackinnon stakes

Race 3 – Watch Racing.com Springtime Stakes 1400m

Yulong January is a horse that we have followed here all spring, and, that isn’t going to change here. Narrowly missing out on quadruple wins, when just failing to clip Ranier, finds an easier field here today including an over-valued Ringerdingding. Yulong January is well weighted and has drawn perfectly for a good run here. Expected to win. Wagner may have drawn the car park here, but, at its best – can beat this field. We have seen what Wagner can produce early on in his career. Has not handled Victorian tracks all too well, and, prefers firmer ground – gets firmer ground today and can be competitive. Big jump in class here from the back-to-back winner, No Emotion, however, comes in well at the weights, won two of three tries at the distance and is expected to be in the mix again here today. Win wouldn’t shock.

Top Pick – Yulong January
Next Best – Wagner
Longshot – No Emotion

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 4 – Derucci Chatham Stakes 1400m

This is the most open race of the day – and there are two that standout in Widgee Turf and MR.Sneaky, but, arguments can be made for at least another four. Going to go with Widgee Turf on top here, was really gallant in defeat last start, comes into this one carrying less, and, has a rider change. Just needs to hold on a bit better the that late speed in this one and should be too hard to beat. Mr.Sneaky is just one of those horses that can run a big race – at its best, can beat this field by 1L+. Coming into this one on the back of some pretty disappointing results, will need a bit of improvement here but, capable. Torgesen is the best of the rest here. Interesting type that is coming in on the back of a stylish win last start. Anything close to last effort will be enough here. Definite chance.

Top Pick – Widgee Turf
Next Best – Mr.Sneaky
Longshot – Togersen

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 5 – Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2600m

Gallic Chieftain is great value here, and, loves this distance, drawn the rail and will get cover throughout. Has shown that it can still hit the line hard and should be included in all exotics here. Top chance. Jameeh has been running well this prep – but, this extra half furlong just seemed a little too much last start. Is against a softer field than last effort and will be there abouts once again. Libran has not featured for a while – but, ticks a few boxes here. Winner around this time last year, enjoys the distance and is coming in on the back of a third that maps well for this race.

Top Pick – Gallic Chieftain
Next Best – Jameeh
Longshot – Libran

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 6 – 7news Matriarch Stakes 2000m

Aqua D’Ivina is where you want to be this race – racing consistently, may have drawn a little wide, but, has the natural ability to overcome this. Unbeaten at this distance on one run, and, has shown the best turn of foot in this field. One to beat. Our Libretto jumps in class here today, but, nothing suggests that it won’t be able to handle the grade. Classy runner that can get going late, and has the benefit of not having to work hard early with a good draw. One of the chances. Eckstein is one that you can’t not include, has a habit of showing up when it is least expected, and, in this field it is one of those situations. While it may not have the same closing speed as some – it may get some luck, which is all Eckstein will need to capitalise.

Top Pick – Aqua D’Ivina
Next Best – Our Libretto
Longshot – Eckstein

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 7 – Vrc Sprint Classic 1200m

Redzel may not have the soggy track it excels on today – but, recent trial was impressive to say the least, blazing in without even trying. Drawn a little wide and will need to put in a bit of work to get the lead, but, McEvoy is on fire right now and just knows how to get the best out of Redzel. One to beat here. Next best is Santa Ana Lane, always in a good spot and just needed firmer ground last start, the ground gives that chance here today and should be able to show sharp improvement on last start. Pierata gets a chance here to unseat Redzel for speed. Both ran the same distance on the same day last out, and Pierata did it two seconds quicker, that isn’t saying that Pierata will blow this field away – it is suggesting that it will handle the step up in class and has the speed to match. Definite chance here.

Top Pick – Redzel
Next Best – Santa Ana Lane
Longshot – Pierata

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 8 – Seppelt Mackinnon Stakes 2000m

Blair House is extremely over-rated here and there is just too many bookie “experts” saying this horse will walk it in – when a bookie tells you a horse will win, that should be your first red flag, that isn’t suggesting it can’t win – it is suggesting that it won’t be a shock if it fails to fire because there is a large portion of the bets on this horse. One that really standsout here for the upset is Trap For Fools, who ran an honest second last start in much more talented company. Expected to run well again and a win wouldn’t shock. Shillelagh was impressive last start when beating a very strong field in the group one Empire Rose stakes. First try at the ten furlongs, but, has the ability to win. Extra Brut is the value point – winner at big odds last start over similar trip and against better runners, anything close to last effort and it can win this one comfortably.

Top Pick – Trap For Fools
Next Best – Shillelagh
Longshot – Extra Brut

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

Race 9 – Grand Handicap 1100m

Eurack would have had even brighter prospects had the barrier draw been a little more beneficial, but, the unbeaten first-up runner is the quickest in the race, and does better fresh as an added kicker. Unbeaten over four career starts and looking for the quintuple here today, and it is achievable against this field. Eurack has the best sectionals over the last two furlongs and will prove hard to beat fresh. Order Of Command has drawn perfectly here and should be able to boxseat throughout. Only gone unplaced over the distance once over five starts and that was due to interference mid race. Can go well here. As It Lies could be the value point here. Yet to go unplaced second up – but, yet to win as well. Distance suits and drawn midfield. Has the early ability to roll forward and will prove hard to beat if can dictate the pace of the race.

Top Pick – Eurack
Next Best – Order Of Command
Longshot – As It Lies

TOP PICK
Mackinnon Stakes

QUADDIE for the day
Race 7 – 6,12,14
Race 8 – 1,3,6
Race 9 – 4,8,9
Race 10 – 9,11,13
$50 gets 62% on BetEasy

Best Bet – Yulong January Race 3 @ $3.80 on NEDS
Next Best – Redzel Race 7 @ $3.60 on NEDS
Longshot – Trap For Fools Race 8 @ $15.00 on NEDS

Bet Chimps Racing Double – Yulong January to win in to Redzel to win @ $13.32/+1232 on BetEasy

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***all listed odds are subject to change, as races are commenced after the writing of this article.

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Bet Chimps Punters Guide – Ballina


Newcastle jockey Robert Thorton - by Citrus Zest via Wikimedia (Moonee Valley Punters Guide)

By Citrus Zest [Creative Commons], via Wikimedia Commons

It has been a bit of a spell between Punters Guide publishings, but, we are back today, and ready to go for the big card at Flemington. Looking for plays – we have you covered here. Our last guide can be found HERE

Race 1 – Xxxx Gold 3yo Maiden Plate 1000m

Interesting race of runners here, Brazen Belle stands out here, despite the lack of racing experience. Debutante with good bloodlines that has been said to have a good set of gears over the short trip. Dunn rarely produces ineffective short priced youngsters. Taking on market confidence here.

Top Pick – Brazen Belle
No Next Best – No third dividend

TOP PICK
Ballina Punters Guide

Race 2 – Tursa Maiden Handicap 1000m

Magic Scent went extremely close to breaking maiden last start, instead, came in as the bridesmaid, but, finds a much easier race here then last. The shorter trip here helps, will push to the lead quickly and the short straight at Ballina will be a secret weapon here. Commandeering can’t be discredited here either, who should be fighting Magic Scent for the lead early on. Both have good early transitional speed to overcome wide gates. Commandeering looms as a threat. Uptooit is another that has good top end speed, and has drawn much more favourably and should challenge for the front spot. True chance and can win here.

Top Pick – Magic Scent
Next Best – Commandeering
Longshot – Uptooit

TOP PICK
Ballina Punters Guide

Race 3 – Ballina Fair Bm 58 Handicap 100m

Luke Rolls has the top weighter, Silent Statue here, and, will be carrying 62kgs, which is a concern, but, this horse is dropping significantly in class and, has drawn well enough to get behind the lead pack. Shown good turn of foot previously and, with a bit of luck, can break through and prove hard to catch. Invincible Tammy loves an uptempo race and will get that here. Expected to roll forward and compete for the early lead, and, with the short straight could be the value point. Leah Kilner is also having a great second half of 2018, and has the ride. Rocky Nugget rounds out the chances here, drawn a mid gate, and, will be another putting the pace into this one. Expected to be in the mix late.

Top Pick – Silent Statue
Next Best – Invincible Tammy
Longshot – Rocky Nugget

TOP PICK
Ballina Punters Guide

Race 4 – Thank You Reg Laurie Maiden Plate 1300m

Angel Of War has drawn wide here, but, has been racing consistently enough around this distance to be competitive here. Last start finished a close second (0.1L) and anything close to last effort will be enough here. Deep Blue Sea is another racing in form, and, an Ocean Park maiden is always competitive. Galloway returns to the saddle here after a strong effort last start, just not having enough in the tank to beat Spicers Peak. Sound prospects here. Givemeaminute could be the value point here and is at a current quote at double digits. Third two starts back reads well for this race, as it was against a better field of runners, and, at its best, can upset here.

Top Pick – Angel Of War
Next Best – Deep Blue Sea
Longshot – Givemeaminute

TOP PICK
Ballina Race 4

Race 5 – Tab.com.au Bm 66 Handicap 2650m

Skye Bogenhuber has been the quiet achiever at the moment, and has another top chance here in Stella’s Chance. Winner at only try at this distance and is coming in off a good win a furlong shorter than today. Maps well here and will be hard to beat. Blazing Cheers was a good winner last start over a furlong and a half shorter. Looked like a bit more leg room would suit, and is offered the chance to prove it today. Has the ability and will be close throughout. Shandaara is the best of the rest here. Got in the minors at only effort over this distance and, anything similar to that effort could prove value here. True chance.

Top Pick – Stella’s Choice
Next Best – Blazing Cheers
Longshot – Shandaara

TOP PICK
Ballina Punters Guide

Race 6 – The Mission @ Aquis Farm Class 1 1000m

Champagne Garden has had two first-up efforts and got in the minors both times, will be looking for one better here today against a very beatable field. Race fitness may be a question mark with a 149-day spell, but, quality enough runner to get the job done here. Inwithachance is as the name suggests. Winner last start at same grade, has an extra half furlong to deal with today, but, has the late speed to steal it late. Danger horse. Jameslea World is at a decent enough quote to warrant respect. Won at this distance and is doing well this prep, last two runs can be forgiven when getting stuck in transition and not finding openings.

Top Pick – Champagne Garden
Next Best – Inwithachance
Longshot – Jameslea World

TOP PICK
Ballina Punters Guide

Race 7 – Wardell On The River Hotel Class 3 1400m

Ryan Plumb has the chance to close out what could be a good day out here on Fanx. Fanx is a winner at this distance, Plumb has won twice in the saddle and finds a race that lacks any real chasing speed. Will shoot to the lead and prove hard to track down. Cyclone Path is a threat here. A stalker type that likes to sit just off the speed, if Fanx doesn’t put too much speed into this one, Cyclone Path could capitalise. Flinders Dragon rounds out the day here, Tegan harrison has a good chance to get the upset in the last and has a good strike rate with horses over $10 quotes but under $15 in the last two races at tracks in Northern NSW. Expected to go well here and a win wouldn’t shock.

Top Pick – Fanx
Next Best – Cyclone Path
Longshot – Flinders Dragon

TOP PICK
Ballina Punters Guide

Best Bet – Magic Scent Race 2 @ $3.00 on BetEasy
Next Best – Champagne Garden Race 6 @ $2.70 on BetEasy
Longshot – Shandaara Race 5 @ $8.00 on NEDS

Bet Chimps Racing Double – Magic Scent to win in to Champagne Garden to win @ $8.52/+752 on BetEasy

Remember to follow Bet Chimps on social media below!
Twitter – @bet_chimps
Instagram – @betchimps
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Gambling is for 18+ only. If you think you have a gambling addiction, please, contact the gambling hotline on 1800 858 858

***all listed odds are subject to change, as races are commenced after the writing of this article.

Sign Up to Bet Chimps for our Sport and Racing all inclusive package!

Make sure to book mark Bet Chimps for more awesome and free Punters Guide posts.