It has been a bit of a spell between Punters Guide publishings, but, we are back today, and ready to go for the big card at Flemington. Looking for plays – we have you covered here. Our last guide can be found HERE
Race 1 – The Carbine Club Stakes 1600m
Wild Planet is a clear danger in this one, and, with the rail being true today – it suits horses that are not going to be leading a little better. That wide turn down the Flemington straight will really open the field up for horses running behind the lead pack – this is where it comes down to closing speed, and Ranier has a slight edge over Wild Planet in this department, despite splitting races against one another – the one time that Wild Planet won – it was because Ranier got stuck for most of the straight and still only just missed out. Ranier will be too strong today. Of the others, value could be had in Secret Blaze, who will be running at the lead, and, if a gap is created has the ability to hold it.
Top Pick – Ranier
Next Best – Wild Planet
Longshot – Secret Blaze
Race 2 – Mumm Wakeful Stakes 2000m
Verry Elleegant is where all the money is today currently. So, with the amount of money backing this horse – it wouldn’t be a shock if it loses – however, it won’t. Another one of the Weir standouts this spring, keeps John Allen in the saddle who managed to just scrape the win out last start. Expecting to see another close finish here as there are a lot of even horses in the speed department here, but, Verry Elleegant heads the list. Next Best will be El Dorado Dreaming, who was a little disappointing last start, but, will be better for the fitness. Will go close. The value point in this race will be Tysonic, who has been very easy on the eye last two starts and makes first trip to the ten furlong marker. Previous efforts suggest it should handle it and current listed price is good value.
Top Pick – Verry Ellegant
Next Best – El Dorado Dreaming
Longshot – Tysonic
Runson is the quickest horse in this race, with a ton of early speed, and enough speed through the middle stages, this horse is going to be extremely hard to beat if at its best. Osbourne Bulls is the next best here that has some serious closing speed that could be enough to catch Runson if able to get the lead. However, the awkward barrier for Osbourne Bulls will mean a very wide run to come home, the Flemington straight is long, which helps – but, Runson is in a world of his own at the moment. So Si Bon can fill in the exotics here, as a former top level runner dropping back to a beatable class.
Top Pick – Runson
Next Best – Osbourne Bulls
Longshot – So Si Bon
Race 4 – Lexus Stakes 2500m
Craig Williams and Sixties Groove are a strong duo here. In impressive form, and last start win was a good enough indicator to suggest a competitive effort again here today. Against better horses here, but, a definite chance and value at listed quotes. Jameeh is another horse that is full of potential, which showed in last start win with Zahra as the jockey. Distance a non issue here, as longer the better it seems for Jameeh. Value point here goes to the Waller trained and McDonald ridden, Brimham Rocks. Impressive type that is always close. Win wouldn’t shock.
Top Pick – Sixties Groove
Next Best – Jameeh
Longshot/Value – Brimham Rocks
Race 5 – Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m
Zousain was gallant in defeat last start when just losing by a whisker to standout young gun, The Autumn Sun, this reads well for this race, as all the late speed will be with Zousain. Written By will likely say, catch me if you can – which is definitely something that Zousain is more than capable of doing. The value marker in the race should the top two fail, will be with the Lean Mean Machine, who will likely put in a flashy finish chasing the lead horses. This race will have a lot of late speed, and, if Written By hasn’t built a strong enough lead – he could be in trouble from a strong group of swoopers.
Top Pick – Zousain
Next Best – Written By
Longshot – Lean Mean Machine
Race 6 – Empire Rose Stakes 1600m
Invincibella has drawn poorly for this race, however, will enjoy the long straight as shown when winning at this track two starts back, with the winning jockey riding again today. Loves racing at Flemington and is yet to do worse than a top three finish. Has the best closing sectionals and should prove hard to beat here. Oohood was an impressive winner two starts back against some classy horses, an effort similar to that, and, it could prove value at current listed quote. Williams has opted for Oohood over Amphitrite in this one – and, surprisingly so. Despite others being favoured here, Amphitrite just can’t be denied, these absolute bullet runs from the back of the field to steal wins is becoming a bit of a trademark for this filly. Expect the same again here today.
Top Pick – Invincibella
Next Best – Oohood
Longshot/Value – Apmhitrite
Race 7 – Aami Victoria Derby 2500m
Thinking Big’s last win was super impressive, the question remains to be answered if that type of run can be sustained over this distance, as it wil need to be against a field of classy horses that enjoy late runs. One that looms as a real danger here is Stars Of Carrum, who sustained a long push to get the win by a small margin at the Valley last start. Stars Of Carrum looked to be able to push on further when winning that race which reads well here. Extra Brut can be forgiven for last run when just get caught in transit and never really being able to find a way through. Will have a wide barrier draw but, will look to sit behind the lead horses in a more favourable position. Has shown a good turn of foot previuosly and will be right in this one.
Top Pick – Thinking Big
Next Best – Stars Of Carrum
Longshot – Extra Brut
Race 8 – Kennedy Mile 1600m
Land Of Plenty ticks a lot of boxes here today. Flemington with a true rail is a dream for back markers, Land Of Plenty fits that bill and has shown exceptional turn of foot so far this spring. Expecting another big finish here from the Weir runner. Main danger here is Cliff’s Edge, who will, like always push for the lead and dare the rest to catch up. If Yendall can make a slip at the right time, Cliff’s Edge may have too big a lead to track down. Value point in this race sits with Hartnell, who, at his best, can beat this field with relative ease – the only question mark with Hartnell these days, is if he is interested in doing so. Showed he still can produce his best though.
Top Pick – Land Of Plenty
Next Best – Cliff’s Edge
Longshot – Hartnell
From Within is look for five straight here today – finds decent competition from I Am Excited. From Within is proven at this range and has shown a great turn of foot this prep. I Am Excited too, has also shown good agility over the closing furlong, but, a slight edge goes to From Within. Massive value today is in Showpero, who was impressive when winning at Balaklava last start, and, despite a considerable jump in grade – should be competitive here at current listed price of $81.
Top Pick – From Within
Next Best – I Am Excited
Longshot – Showpero
Quaddie for the meet
Race 6 – 2/13/15
Race 7 – 1/3/4
Race 8 – 1/4/11
Race 9 – 4/7/10
$81 returns 100% with BetEasy
Bet Chimps Racing Double – Land Of Plenty to place in to Zousain to win @ $7.80/+680 on BetEasy
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***all listed odds are subject to change, as races are commenced after the writing of this article.
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