Bet Chimps Punters Guide – 2018 Lexus Melbourne Cup
It’s Melbourne Cup day and we have the best from every race with the Bet Chimps Punters Guide and, we are ready to go for the big card at the 2018 Lexus Melbourne Cup. Looking for plays – we have you covered here. Our last guide can be found HERE
Race 1 – Bumble Stakes 1000m
Champagne Boom was a strong winner on debut last start, and, while stepping up in grade for the race, the field isn’t equal. While more runners can cause havoc when trying to find a seam to get through, Craig Williams has proven capable at doing so before, and, this is his race to lose. The More Then Ready filly is the next best here. Hugh Bowman has the ride and will be looking to ride midfield here. Reports suggest that Still Single possess’s a lot of late speed and will come close late. Value point here goes to Lankan Star, Nicconi 2-year olds are enjoying a successful spring campaign so far, and, another win here wouldn’t shock.
Top Pick – Champagne Boom
Next Best – Still Single
Longshot – Lankan Star
Race 2 – Tab App Trophy 1700m
One More Try is where you want to be here. Linda Meech has produced her only two wins with this horse on softer ground, and, it is expected to be that way by the time this race starts. Shown great late speed and won’t have to do too much getting a great draw and can get in cover early. One to beat. Miss Siska is always dangerous. Likes to run near the lead, but, has a great turn of foot and is proven at this range. True chance. Lady Silhouette has drawn poorly, but, has a good turn of foot, and, the wide and long Flemington straight helps here.
Top Pick – One More Try
Next Best – Miss Siska
Longshot – Lady Silhouette
Race 3 – Grinders Coffee Roasters Trophy 1400m
Fifty Stars is getting the benefit of the doubt again here after missing the win barely on last two starts. Quality horse that just needs to take that one little step more to move into that upper echelon. Distance is optimal, poor barrier draw is a concern, but, the early speed will have the four-year-old get close to the lead and get a bit of cover, which only brightens prospects. Loves a bit of give in the ground, and will have it by race three. Mandela Effect and Dean Holland are 1-from-1 together, and, the Turffontein runner has a great strike rate at this distance (3 2-1-0). Expected to provide the competition here. Jake Noonan has the class dropping Masculino here, drawn well and is poised here. Great value, and, slightly over the odds. Possible value to be had here.
Top Pick – Fifty Stars
Next Best – Mandela Effect
Longshot – Masculino
Race 4 – Ronald Mcdonald House Charities 2800m
Doukhan is the main danger here, winner at the distance, has one of the best long distance jockey’s in the saddle here, and finds a field with not too much late speed. Drawn well, will most likely drop off out of the gate behind the lead pack. Will need a bit of luck finding a seam, but, best horse in the race here. Ethan James is the value point here. Winner at the range, winner at the range with the jockey, performed well prior to spell, recent runs after return from the paddock have been uninspiring at best. But, if Meech can find top gear here, no other horse will keep up. Definite chance. Kellstorm is a bit of a smokey here. Great value, a winner over the distance, multiple winner on softer ground and running lighter than last winning effort over a similar distance. Expect a bold effort.
Top Pick – Doukhan
Next Best – Ethan James
Longshot – Kellstorm
Race 5 – Schweppes Flemington Fling 1000m
Singular Sensation is an interesting runner here. Impressive first up on debut, then a winner during encore performance. First-up today, over a suitable distance, with a jockey who performs best on front runners. A lot of boxes ticked here and will go well. Fine Dane can’t be overlooked here either. Running consistently, winner over this range, and on softer going. Barrier not the greatest, but, will push forward in what maps as an up-tempo race. Nomothaj is another that can’t be overlooked. Unbeaten at track and distance, gets the consistent Crowley in the saddle and will prove a handful if it can get to the lead. Danger horse.
Top Pick – Singular Sensation
Next Best – Fine Dane
Longshot – Nomothaj
Race 6 – Jim Beam Black Stakes 1400m
Top performing Smart Missile filly, Beauty is the one to beat here. Super impressive run last start against a softer field of runners. However, the track will be easier under foot here and that suits Beauty to a t. Best closing sectionals and, retains winning jockey from last effort. Hard to beat here. Jen Rules is one that can roll forward early on and put some speed in this race. McEvoy has the ride and he is one of the better tacticians in the saddle. Expect a bold run here. I’m So Sweet rounds out the field here. Shown plenty of promise with consistency between runs being the issue. Trend data would suggest it is due for a strong effort here, and should be included.
Top Pick – Beauty
Next Best – Jen Rules
Longshot – I’m So Sweet
Race 7 – Lexus Melbourne Cup 3200m
Magic Circle comes into this one, with the best form over the distance, proven runner at this range, and, will prove hard to topple again here. Drawn awkwardly, but, will drop to the back of the field and not have too much of a hassle getting over. Will do well to not sit too far back as, Melbourne Cups are rarely won from the rear of the field. Corey Brown has his work cut out for him here, but, he has the best horse in the race that is in the best position to get this win. Avilius has proven himself in the lead-up to this race. Impressive winner two starts back, fending off Jameeh before falling to Winx last start. Distance is optimal, drawn well and will be able to get cover throughout. Just needs to not over race early on and will be right in this. Best Solution has shown the most in the lead-up to this race, only red flag here is the distance. The extra weight is a non-factor here and, is the best overall horse in the race – just the distance may cause trouble, needs to be included though. Marmelo fills out the top four here. Disappointed last Cup, but, has a chance at redemption here. The Morrison stables realised they did too much racing in the prep for the Melbourne Cup, and, this time they decided on coming in fresh. They know the horse can perform at this range, and must be included because the six-year-old horse can upset here.
Top Pick – Magic Circle
Next Best – Avilius
Longshot – Best Solution
First Four Includer – Marmelo
Race 8 – Furphy Plate 1800m
Zahspeed was a cool winner last start when tearing to the lead at Moonee Valley and never relenting. Will find it a bit harder to run to the front and stay there this time, but, enjoys a softer track, drawn awkwardly, but, with a good jump, will be at the front and hard to chase down again. Stampede is unbeaten at this distance on one attempt. However, has won at the ten furlong marker and has a furlong less to travel here. Stephen Baster loves the Flemington track and will be right in this one despite the top weight. Tradesman is another that needs to be included here. Runs well first-up, enjoys the distance, and should find the field a bit more tame than last effort prior to the spell. Will look to run on the heels of Zahspeed here and challenge down the straight.
Top Pick – Zahspeed
Next Best – Stampede
Longshot – Tradesman
Race 9 – Mss Security Sprint 1200m
Tversky has been in stellar form this prep – maintains an incredible 44% win rate and, is in a field where he can stay on the speed and still win. Shown great grit down the straight previously, and, another run like the prior four would be enough to win here. Trekking, despite a poor last-up effort, can be forgiven and given the benefit of the doubt here against a field that maps on the slower side. If Trekking can stay in pursuit of Tversky throughout, has the closing speed to win by a length. Outside value here is with Moonlover. In incredible form this prep, the three wins from last four were all super impressive and map well for this race. Definite danger.
Top Pick – Tversky
Next Best – Trekking
Longshot – Moonlover
Race 10 – The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes 1400m
Resin is the best way to get some money back if you are chasing your tail at this point. Unbeaten on softer going, and the track should be beaten and tenderised by this stage. Yet to test over seven furlongs, but, prior wins over the six furlongs suggest it shouldn’t be an issue. Buick is the right man for the ride and the two should prove hard to beat here. Spanner Head is always a danger horse. Jordan Childs is riding here, and, has ridden Spanner Head through in first previously. Distance is perfect and, hasn’t drawn great, but, not the worst. Has the natural ability to beat this field if at its best. Noire must be included with that inside barrier draw. Winner at the distance, but, not the class, despite dropping significantly. At its best, can beat this field, but, needs sharp improvement to do so, not completely out of it, and has earned respect here.
Top Pick – Resin
Next Best – Spanner Head
Longshot/Value – Noire
Bet Chimps Racing Double – Resin to win in to Fifty Stars to win @ $12.42/+1142 on BetEasy
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***all listed odds are subject to change, as races are commenced after the writing of this article.
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